My rough as shit season win modelling (YPP based) gives expected values of about:

ARI 6.24
ATL 10.18
BAL 9.70
BUF 5.37
CAR 4.28
CHI 8.62
CIN 7.00
CLE 6.99
DAL 7.48
DEN 5.43
DET 7.61
GNB 10.33
HOU 7.34
IND 8.59
JAC 6.54
KAN 8.27
MIA 6.69
MIN 6.58
NWE 9.25
NOR 11.31
NYG 9.01
NYJ 8.97
OAK 8.51
PHI 9.27
PIT 10.60
SDG 9.81
SFO 6.68
SEA 7.81
STL 7.55
TAM 8.34
TEN 8.55
WAS 7.11

This doesn't include any off season moves so I don't know if I'd even make any leans yet.

OK fine, VS current pinny lines:

Top 3:
NWE Under
OAK Over
TEN Over

Others:
GNB Under
NOR Over
PHI Under
SEA Over

Flame away, as mentioned this is from a basic YPP model so it's hardly earth shattering stuff (I was mostly doing it to try and practice for a minor soccer league I need to set season lines for).

I don't know if I'm going to bet any of these yet, but they're starting points for research.

So, I am in the enviable position of having some futures bets that are looking good. I've seen some good value lines on the same future. I'm a little confused about how to calculate my optimum bet size (numbers are imaginary).

For example, let's say I have 100 on Dallas to win the NBA at 15.
They are now available at 5 at a lazy bookie, fair price is less than that. If it was a new bet I'd bet 500.

The way I see it there are three options:

Bet To to win total - My new bet would win me...

Well, a book that I have been pounding has limited me to $10 bets. This is obviously inconvenient as I would like to continue betting these lines for fun and profit (mostly for profit).

I'm still allowed to play parlays, so my plan to wring the last bits of value out of their lazy linemaker is as follows, please let me know if I screwed anything up:

Make a list of all the games I want to bet, how much I want to bet on them, and my perceived edge.

Sort the list from most valuable to least valuable.

Starting at the...